RBA Rate Rises Back on the Table? Here’s What Borrowers Need to Know

Just when borrowers thought the interest-rate picture might finally be settling down, the outlook has shifted again.

At its 11 August meeting, the Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, giving households some breathing room after three rate increases earlier this year.

But two new pieces of economic data have quickly brought another rate rise back into the conversation.

The latest ABS inflation figures showed annual headline inflation easing from 3.8% to 3.5% in July. That’s the good news.

The less comfortable number is underlying inflation: trimmed-mean inflation remained at 3.6%, still well above where the RBA wants it.

Then came July’s household spending figures.

Australian household spending jumped 1.1% in a single month and was 7.0% higher than a year earlier, suggesting consumers are proving more resilient to higher interest rates than expected.

Together, those numbers have changed the forecasts.

As of 28 August, three of Australia’s Big Four banks are now predicting another RBA increase during 2026:

NAB expects a potential increase at the September meeting and says another could follow if economic activity remains strong.

CBA is forecasting a November increase.

ANZ is also forecasting an increase in November.

Westpac remains the outlier and currently expects the RBA to stay on hold.

That doesn’t mean another increase is guaranteed. Forecasts change as new inflation, employment and spending figures arrive.

But for borrowers, the message is simple:

Rate risk hasn’t disappeared.

And you don’t need to wait for another RBA announcement to do something about your own loan.

If your home loan hasn’t been reviewed recently, this could be the right time to check your current rate, compare what other lenders are offering and see whether refinancing or restructuring could put you in a stronger position.

Even if rates stay exactly where they are, paying more than you need to doesn’t make much sense.

And if rates do rise again?

You’ll be glad you checked beforehand.

Talk to Loan Nerds and let us see how your current loan stacks up.